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Subject: Syria/Lebanon
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STRATFOR.COM's Global Intelligence Update - January 7, 2000

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STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update
January 7, 2000

Syria Roots Out Militants

Summary

Fighting between government forces and Sunni militants in northern
Lebanon is more than simple counter-insurgency. Rather, Syria is
using its Lebanese proxy to eliminate any forces of instability
within Lebanon, no matter how minor. This motivation is not only to
satisfy Israeli concerns about security, but also to ensure the
future stability of Syria after President Hafez Assad dies.
Militant groups are attempting to forestall any peace accord
between Israel and Syria, yet at the same time are facing
extermination due to Syrian efforts to clean house. Both reasons
contribute to a rise in activity by marginal terrorist groups.


Analysis

Lebanese security forces appear to be wrapping up a six-day
crackdown on Sunni militants in the hills outside the northern city
of Tripoli. The fighting began Dec. 31 when members of al-takfir
wal hijra, an obscure Moslem extremist group, ambushed a Lebanese
army patrol near Assun, killing four soldiers. The army, quick to
respond, flooded the area with some 3,000 troops and artillery. At
last count, about 25 rebels were reported killed and 55 captured,
while the army reports losing 11 men.

According to Lebanese media, the group was composed of dissidents
from more established terrorist groups in the area such as Al-
Tawheed and Jamaa al-Islamiyya. The small group numbered between
150 and 200 fighters and had only been established within the last
two years. Although Lebanese commentators generally dismiss al-
takfir wal hijra as disorganized and insignificant, the group has
been linked to several actions within the last few months.

Four Christian churches in Lebanon were bombed between Oct. 3 and
Nov. 13. Although little damage occurred, the attacks came at a
delicate moment for Israel and Syria, which were discussing a
potential Israeli pullout from Lebanon. Although it did not claim
responsibility for the attack, al-takfir wal hijra was on the short
list of suspects in the bombing.

A second set of incidents occurred this past week at the same time
that al-takfir was engaged with government forces. On Jan. 2, a
Palestinian man fired several rocket-propelled grenades at the
Russian embassy in Beirut. The same day, a man with a grenade
attacked a Lebanese army road block near the Ain el-Helweh refugee
camp. Suspicion for both attacks fell on a Palestinian group called
the Partisan League, which is reportedly linked to al-takfir wal
hijra.

The character of the Lebanese attack speaks volumes about how
seriously the governments take the terrorists. The army's
incredibly rapid reaction and the thoroughness of the attack
indicate that the group is not merely being defeated, it is being
exterminated. Following the initial ambush, the Sunni militant
forces apparently attempted to break up and disappear into the
surrounding countryside. According to Deutsche Presse Agentur,
Lebanese security forces have blocked all escape routes from the
hills and are systematically clearing villages of Sunni militant
forces. This tactic appears to be working, as the top three leaders
of al-takfir are reportedly dead.

The Lebanese government is portraying this campaign as a symbol of
its willingness and ability to keep order within its own borders.
However, credit for the crackdown should go to Syria, which is the
major power broker in Lebanon. This is especially true in the
north, where Syria has stationed the majority of its 30,000 troops
in Lebanon.

Syria has two motives for suppressing the militants. First,
stability within Lebanon is a precondition for any peace deal
between Israel and Syria. In the past two months, Syria has
arrested scores of activists within Syria and Lebanon as
precautionary measures, according to the Mideast Mirror. Syria has
even been able to control the Iranian-backed Hezbollah guerrillas
in southern Lebanon 
( http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/m9912172255.htm ). Even
though al-takfir wal hijra appears relatively harmless, any type of
destabilizing activity is not to be tolerated.

Second, Syrian President Hafez Assad is likely attempting to root
out any future challenges to the Syrian government, especially
those that might surface after his death. At present, Assad
maintains an iron grip on Syria and is not threatened by any
internal challenges. However, his health is failing, and he has
left no clear successor. By destroying al-takfir, Assad is removing
a force that might take advantage of the potential confusion that
could follow his death.

Al-takfir wal hijra was never a serious security threat to Syria,
Israel or even Lebanon. But that is exactly the point. The major
threats to Lebanese security have been neutralized, leaving only
obscure groups that are marginally effective. They are among the
last of a dwindling set of militants, formerly sheltered by Syria
and now hunted by it. They are lashing out not only to forestall
the accord between Syria and Israel - but to stave off their own
extermination.




(c) 2000, Stratfor, Inc.
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