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STRATFOR.COM's Weekly Global Intelligence Update - 4 February 2000


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STRATFOR.COM Weekly Global Intelligence Update
4 February 2000



Mozambique: The Renewed Threat of Violence

Summary

Afonso Dhlakama, leader of the Mozambique Resistance Movement
(RENAMO), has threatened to establish separate provincial
governments, posing a direct threat to the stability of the
country. Dhlakama has also challenged the authority of President
Joaquim Alberto Chissano, who leads the ruling Mozambique
Liberation Front (FRELIMO). While the will and ambition of
Dhlakama's group is clear, the group does not seem capable of
launching a campaign significant enough to compromise the
government.

Analysis

Portuguese TV reported that RENAMO leader Afonso Dhlakama told
supporters at a rally on Feb. 2 that "the true president of
Mozambique is not Chissano. His name is Afonso Macacho Montessa
Dhlakama." Dhlakama added that upon his return to Mozambique's
capital, Maputo, he would give the government a 10-day deadline to
settle the election issue once and for all before he declares a
separate RENAMO government.

Dhlakama is contesting the veracity of Mozambique's December
election results, claiming that he won the presidency and a
majority in the parliament. In fact, Mozambique's election process
leaves much room for manipulation, since politically appointed
representatives oversee elections.

Dhlakama bases his claims on extensive errors and fraud that
occurred during the election process. According to Electoral
Administration Technical Secretariat's (STAE) figures, 550
presidential ballots and 727 parliamentary ballots contained
problems so severe that the data could not be recovered. These
ballots comprised 6.6 percent of the presidential polling stations
and 8.7 percent of parliamentary polling stations. Most of these
ballots came from polling stations in provinces where Dhlakama's
support was strong. However, the final results of the elections
left Chissano with 52.29 percent and Dhlakama with 47.71 percent -
a difference of only 4.58 percent.

The rally in Niassa province is the most recent stop on a tour in
which Dhlakama claims that RENAMO party won a majority in
Mozambique's recent elections. Dhlakama has threatened to declare
his separate government in these parts of the country. The line is
clearly drawn. The Save River marks the border between the north-
central provinces where RENAMO has a majority and the southern
provinces where FRELIMO is the majority. The only exception is Cabo
Delgado province in the northeast where FRELIMO won the majority.
Cabo Delgado - surrounded by provinces that support RENAMO - would
be a likely place for conflict to resume between the two groups.

Following Mozambique's independence in June 1975, the Mozambique
Liberation Front (FRELIMO) quickly established a one-party Marxist
state and outlawed rival political activity. A civil war between
the FRELIMO government and the Mozambique Resistance Movement
(RENAMO) began in 1976. Originally, South Africa and Rhodesia
supported RENAMO against the government. In 1992, FRELIMO and
RENAMO signed a General Peace Accord and in 1994, in the country's
first free elections, Chissano was elected president with 53
percent of the vote. FRELIMO took 129 seats in the parliament.
RENAMO garnered 112 seats in the same election.

Dhlakama's actions are raising serious concern of renewed violence.
Dhlakama told Mozambican radio on Jan. 25 that RENAMO would never
resume hostilities in Mozambique, but that implied a threat of
violence. He said on the radio, "I shall never give the order for a
shot to be fired." He then added, "of course there will be those
who will feel offended and become upset and break with us and
resume war," implying that there is nothing he could -- or would --
do if violence breaks out.

Indicating the seriousness of resurgent violence, Dhlakama
announced Jan. 28 that RENAMO will move its headquarters from
Maputo to Beira, capital of the central Sofala province and one of
Dhlakama's strongholds. This announcement followed the threat of
establishing parallel provincial governments. While speaking on
Jan. 31, Dhlakama said, "I swear, Chissano will not govern this
country until he agrees to sit at the negotiating table and come to
a political agreement." That same day, he pledged that his people
would engage in civil disobedience if he and the RENAMO were
prevented from taking office.

While the threats and aspirations of Dhlakama to establish his own
government and threaten Mozambique's stability are significant, his
ability to make good on these threats is considerably less
substantial. The will is there but the means are lacking.

According to the Portuguese newspaper Publico, RENAMO is
practically demilitarized with only a few dozen armed guards
remaining. Also, it is not clear that all of RENAMO's smaller
allied parties are ready to undertake such an endeavor. Maximo
Dias, leader of the Mozambican Nationalist Movement (MONAMO), told
the Mozambique News Agency that he is not prepared to serve in any
parallel government that Dhlakama may establish. Also, during its
long civil war with FRELIMO, the apartheid government of South
Africa backed RENAMO in its efforts because FRELIMO was supporting
South African resistance movements at the time. The current South
African government is interested in keeping neighboring countries
stable and is unlikely to back a RENAMO uprising.

Chissano responded to Dhlakama's comments on Feb. 3 saying that he
had no intention of negotiating with Dhlakama over the inclusion of
RENAMO members in the Mozambican government. However, he did say he
was willing to enter a broad dialogue with the entire opposition to
discuss ways of improving the well-being of the population. This
indicates that Chissano is at least not shrugging off Dhlakama even
though he publicly claims he is not worried. While RENAMO is not as
big a threat as it would like to appear, Chissano will still have
to handle the situation very carefully.





(c) 2000 WNI, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/

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