Return-Path: Received: from yorktown.stratfor.com ([207.8.81.2]) by mailin07.sul.t-online.de with smtp id 12OEcW-0qSDQWC; Fri, 25 Feb 2000 07:53:00 +0100 Received: (qmail 7471 invoked by alias); 25 Feb 2000 03:15:06 -0000 Mailing-List: contact redalert-help@stratfor.com; run by ezmlm X-No-Archive: yes Delivered-To: mailing list redalert@stratfor.com Delivered-To: moderator for redalert@stratfor.com Received: (qmail 7247 invoked by uid 516); 25 Feb 2000 03:10:10 -0000 Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2000 21:10:10 -0600 (EST) From: To: redalert@stratfor.com Subject: Syria Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII STRATFOR.COM's Global Intelligence Update - 25 February 2000 By The Internet's Most Intelligent Source of International News & Analysis http://www.stratfor.com/ __________________________________________ Know the every move of your competitors -- even before they do. Stratfor Intelligence Services http://www.stratfor.com/services/ __________________________________________ WHAT'S GOING ON IN YOUR WORLD NATO Prepares to Abandon Neutrality in Kosovo http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/0002250137.htm Iran: Security Forces' Rivalry Turns Violent http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/0002250136.htm Taiwan Elections May Offer Brief Respite in Tensions With China http://www.stratfor.com/asia/specialreports/special110.htm Russia Seeks to Expand Control of Ukraine http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/0002250112.htm __________________________________________ STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update 25 February 2000 Syrian Purges Pave Way For Bashar Summary Bashar Assad, son of Syrian President Hafez Assad, has been slated for a high post in Syria following an anticipated government shuffle. Prior to this, a series of purges, focused on two interrelated goals, have been underway in Syria. One goal is to eliminate Bashar's opponents, and the other is to remove those who could pose a challenge to Bashar's ability to exercise authority and influence in both Syria and Lebanon. Meanwhile, President Assad is ensuring that the special relationship he has built with Israel is passed on to his son. The purges appear to be working, since Bashar is reportedly ready to rise another notch in power. Analysis Bashar Assad may soon be appointed to a senior position, possibly vice president, in the country's leadership, according to a Feb. 21 report in the Lebanese daily As-Safir, a major conduit of leaks from the Syrian government. According to the report, cited in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, the anticipated government reshuffle would be implemented within 10 days at most. The report also stated that President Hafez Assad convened the national leadership of the ruling Baath Party last week in order to discuss the urgent need to develop and renew the administration in Syria while continuing to fight corruption and flawed management - two areas in which Bashar Assad has been active in recent years. If appointed to a high government post, it is a clear indication that Bashar will officially become heir to the Syrian presidency, but more importantly it indicates that he is ready for the responsibility. This development also sheds light on a possible motivation for Syria's negotiations with Israel. It is likely that President Assad is using the current Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations to ensure that the special relationship he has built with Israel is passed on to his son. Israel and Syria have maintained informal peace for decades now, and the Syrian president needs to assure that the tacit relationship will be honored when his son takes over. Since Bashar became the heir apparent, he and President Assad have been clearing out opponents to Bashar that could potentially want to take advantage of his perceived weakness. Certain factions in Syria believe Bashar is too inexperienced to handle the presidency, and since he was outside the political intrigues of Damascus, they are undoubtedly correct - unless the path can be smoothed for him. In 1994 Bashar was completing an ophthalmology residency in Britain when his older brother and heir apparent at the time, Basil, was killed in a car accident. Bashar had reportedly said that he had never sought a life in politics nor dreamed of becoming president. However, under pressure from his father, he agreed to return to Syria and begin the process of grooming for the leadership. Upon his return to Syria in 1994, Bashar unsurprisingly moved quickly up through the military and became a colonel in January 1999. He also commands a brigade of the elite Republican Guard division. Toward the end of 1998, Bashar took charge of Syria's Lebanon portfolio - an area of influence critically important to Damascus. Lebanon's trade and smuggling routes provide a significant amount of revenue to Damascus and by extension specific families in Damascus. The importance of politics in Lebanon is deeply personal in Damascus down to the level of families and clans. In order to remove potential obstacles to the chosen, if inexperienced successor, Assad launched a series of purges focused on two interrelated goals. Older guards who have established their own power bases are being replaced with Bashar loyalists. Concurrently, Bashar and Assad are removing those who could challenge Bashar's ability to exercise authority and influence in both Syria and Lebanon. As it turns out, all the purges are deeply intertwined. They are designed to clear the way for Bashar to rule effectively when he rises to power. Assad is clearing out Bashar's foes, many of whom are competitors with the Assad family for control of the lucrative trade routes through Lebanon. Meanwhile, Assad is trying to reach an agreement with Israel not to undermine Bashar. In 1998 the former Intelligence Chief Bashir al-Najjar was removed and later sentenced to prison on corruption and embezzlement charges, and the chief of staff of the armed forces, Hikmat al- Shihabi, known to be at odds with Bashar, was replaced with a Bashar loyalist and fellow member of the secretive Shiite sect, Alawi. Rifaat Assad, the president's estranged brother and potential Bashar challenger, has been reined in. Rifaat has presidential ambitions for himself and his son and attempted a coup in 1984 while President Assad was ill. In an October 1999 attempt to eliminate Rifaat's power base, Bashar's Republican Guard troops attacked Rifaat's "illegal" Latakia port and residence, destroying the compound and reportedly killing hundreds of Rifaat's loyalists. A highly significant purge was the Feb. 6 retirement of the military intelligence head Gen. Ali Duba. According to Agence France-Presse in 1998, informed Arab diplomats reported that Duba was "a major obstacle to Bashar's accession." Although Syrian army officers frequently continue service beyond retirement age, Duba questioned why a presidential successor needed to come from the Assad clan. This would explain why President Assad and Bashar mandated Duba's retirement. Not only was Duba a threat to Bashar, he was also associated with Lebanese smuggling. Duba was cited in February 1999 in a case involving the illicit traffic of religious relics between Lebanon and Canada, according to Intelligence Newsletter. An inquiry revealed the existence of a network that had been operating since 1990 under Duba's protection. Duba's retirement was attributed to his alleged involvement in this and other financial scandals. The broad government purges may even go as high as the level of prime minister. According to As-Safir, Prime Minister Mahmoud Zoubi, who has held his post since 1987, is expected to be replaced. One rumor is that Foreign Minister Farouk Sharaa will be made prime minister to be on par with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak in the Israeli-Syrian peace talks. Sharaa is a staunch supporter of President Assad and will be equally loyal to Bashar. In addition to government and military purges, President Assad has also purged Syria and Lebanon of Islamic militants opposed to the current negotiations with Israel. The anticipated government reshuffle will secure Bashar's position as the undisputed heir apparent. The high-level purges pave the way for Bashar's security once he takes office. As president, Bashar's more experienced rivals who remain in the Syrian government will find it difficult to challenge him. President Assad is effectively working to secure his son's and family's power in Syria and control over Lebanon, while maintaining Syria's convenient, if tacit, relationship with Israel. Since news does not freely flow out of Syria, the fact As-Safir reported Bashar's readiness to rise a notch in power means that the purges seem to be working. (c) 2000, Stratfor, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/ __________________________________________________ SUBSCRIBE to FREE, DAILY GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES by clicking on http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp UNSUBSCRIBE FROM THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES (GIU) http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp or send your name, title, organization, address, phone number, and e-mail to alert@stratfor.com ___________________________________________________ STRATFOR.COM 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: info@stratfor.com ___________________________________________________