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Subject: IWPR'S BALKAN CRISIS REPORT, NO. 150
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WELCOME TO IWPR'S BALKAN CRISIS REPORT, NO. 150, June 20, 2000

VUK IN TROUBLE  Following the latest attempt on his life, Vuk Draskovic has
never found himself so politically isolated. Zeljko Cvijanovic reports.

GRIM SECRETS UNEARTHED  Forensic teams from The Hague Tribunal are exhuming
hundreds of gravesites around Kosovo. Geoff Parish reports from Pristina. 

ANTI-TERRORISM LAW POSES "MONSTROUS THREAT"  New anti-terrorist legislation
in Serbia would strike at the very heart of civil liberties and crush the
last vestiges of democracy. Former constitutional court judge Slobodan
Vucetic comments from Belgrade.

MACEDONIANS NERVOUS OVER BULGARIAN RAPPROCHEMENT  Some Macedonians are
suspicious of their government's attempts to build bridges with neighbouring
Bulgaria. Zeljko Bajic reports from Skopje. 

****************** VISIT IWPR ON-LINE: www.iwpr.net ****************** 

VUK IN TROUBLE 

Following the latest attempt on his life, Vuk Draskovic has never found
himself so politically isolated.

By Zeljko Cvijanovic

The Serbian opposition's contempt for Vuk Draskovic is such that many of it
members believe he staged last week's assassination attempt to bolster his
flagging reputation. 

Publicly, the opposition parties have condemned the Budva shooting, in which
Draskovic was slightly injured, blaming it on Slobodan Milosevic's secret
police.

But, off the record, some suspect that he hatched the plot to increase his
popularity and diffuse tensions within his party, the Serbian Renewal
Movement, SPO.

Draskovic's unpredictability has long frustrated his supporters and other
opposition activists, but it appears to have got worse since he survived an
apparent assassination attempt last October - a suspicious car accident in
which his wife's brother and three bodyguards were killed. 

Draskovic's capriciousness provoked howls of derision earlier this month
when he backtracked on a pledge to mount a united stand with other
opposition parties at local and federal elections.

His explanation was that he believed that Milosevic was bound to rig the
ballots - and that anyone who took part would in fact legitimise the polls.
But the international community and some members of his own party suspect
that he had made a pact with Milosevic to preserve corrupt SPO authorities
in several major Serbian towns and cities. 

Two days before the assassination attempt in Budva, Draskovic sought to
refute those accusing him of making deals with the regime by sensationally
proposing to the main board of the SPO that party officials resign their
posts in the municipalities in question. The move backfired. His proposal
was rejected out-of-hand.

The SPO leader's actions have also set him on a collision course with some
in his party who believe he is trying to neuter its stand against the
regime. They also resent his quarrelling with other opposition parties with
whom they believe they can co-operate. 

Opposition leaders are increasingly reluctant to work with him. Their
dislike of Draskovic has been growing ever since last October's alleged
assassination attempt. 

Following the incident, they were insulted by his decision not to personally
participate in meetings aimed at formulating a joint opposition electoral
campaign. He provoked further anger when he failed to show up for a key
opposition rally in Milosevic's home town of Pozarevac in May.  

Many suspect that his recent erratic behaviour is a symptom of deteriorating
psychological problems, brought about by his close scrapes with death. On
the day of the Pozeravac rally, he repeatedly phoned his representatives
there with contradictory orders. 

Irritated by his indecisiveness, one member of his party quipped to
psychology professor and leader of the Social Democratic Union, Zarko Korac,
"Professor, take the phone, I think this is a case for you."

Draskovic is said to be so fearful of assassination that he rarely leaves
his holiday home in Budva - and some of his closest associates have hinted
that he may be on the brink of quitting politics forever. After the October
incident, he told his friends several times that he'd made enough sacrifices
in his battle with Milosevic.

Officially, at least, the SPO is insisting that all is well with Draskovic.
"In spite of all that has happened to Draskovic, he is in very good shape
and very much in the mood continue the political fight, " said his advisor,
Predrag Simic.  

Whether he can continue to lead his increasingly divided party from his bolt
hole in Montenegro is questionable, but what's even clearer, though, is that
the SPO have no one to replace him. During the last ten years of his
controversial tenure as head of the party, anyone capable of succeeding him
has left the party in protest at his stewardship. 

Zeljko Cvijanovic is a regular IWPR contributor 


GRIM SECRETS UNEARTHED

Forensic teams from The Hague Tribunal are exhuming hundreds of gravesites
around Kosovo.

By Geoff Parish in Pristina 

The Dragodan cemetery in Pristina is a quiet, almost serene place. 

Perched on a hillside on the edge of this dusty, crowded city, it offers a
view to the north of rolling hills. From here you can see the site of the
battle of Kosovo where Serbs were defeated by Turks in 1389 - a conflict
used by Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic to fan Serb nationalism. 

No small irony, then, that this graveyard bears witness to the grim results
of the ethnic cleansing of Kosovo.

Today, the trill of birds in the cemetery is broken by the sound of a
mechanical digger exhuming bodies - part of a concerted effort by The
Hague-based International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, ICTY,
to strengthen indictments issued against Milosevic and four of his aides.

The exhumation team is led by Steve Watts, a burly police superintendent
from Portsmouth in England. His expert forensic team, drawn from all over
the United Kingdom, has been working for a month in the cemetery and has so
far exhumed 90 bodies and expects to "lift" many more.

"It is one of the more significant sites in relation to the number of bodies
recovered and to the indictments," says Watts.

To date the ICTY has identified 440 sites for exhumation across Kosovo. Last
year their work yielded 2,108 bodies and they aim to excavate all the
identified areas before the next winter. They have completed work at 93
locations since digging resumed in April. The ICTY learned of the Dragodan
sites following investigations and interviews with local communities. 

In the broiling morning sun, Watts and his team work diligently to reveal
the secrets of the sloping site. 

After digging down a metre or so, a patch of disturbed earth is clearly
visible.  The sickly smell of death hangs in the air. The exhumation team
moves into the pit and begins work with picks and shovels and, when fine
work is required, they use their gloved hands. 

When the decomposed body is revealed it is photographed with a numbered card
and then lifted into a black zippered body bag where it is photographed
again - part of a rigorous process of documentation aimed at delivering
watertight evidence to the prosecutors in The Hague. 

The muddy body appears to be a male, wearing dark sneakers and blue
trousers. It is not immediately apparent how he was killed. 

The cause of death will be determined by a forensic pathologist in the
Pristina mortuary. Some bodies are unearthed bearing clearly visible bullet
holes in the skull. Years of work investigating murders and kidnappings
haven't quite prepared Watts for the grim results of ethnic cleansing.

"I don't think you can ever get used to this sort of thing...I think you
deal with it in your own way, the satisfaction comes from knowing you've
done a job that is part of a process that says this sort of thing should
never happen, that the world won't stand for it."

Interestingly, despite apparently strong eyewitness evidence, digging at
some sites reveals no victims. However, this in itself can be beneficial to
villagers, dispelling their fears about what may have seemed a suspicious
patch of disturbed earth.

But whoever dumped the bodies at Dragodan has gone to considerable length to
try and avoid detection.  And what better place to dispose of their dirty
work than a cemetery? 

The exhumation team uses a sniffer dog to warn of booby traps. The bodies
are found buried between marked graves. Some are almost underneath
legitimate burial sites. At some sites carcasses of dogs and cows have been
exhumed, apparently buried as a decoy or to waste the time of investigators.


These devious methods seem to suggest the perpetrators may be aware of the
Tribunal's work in The Hague.

"Well I think in this day and age people must realise that at some stage
people like us are going to come along working for the ICTY and looking for
the perpetrators," says Watts.

By lunchtime, the team have exhumed six bodies, which will soon be taken to
the mortuary for post mortems. The victim's clothes will be washed and
digitally photographed, with the image transferred to a computer database.

People with missing relatives and friends will view the photos. It's part of
what Watts calls the "multi-faceted" nature of their work - gathering
evidence for indictments, providing information for relatives and building a
better picture of what happened during the dark days of ethnic cleansing.

"It's very, very important to let people know what happened to their loved
ones and it's about letting the society know about the extent of the war
crimes," he says. " It helps to bring back stability to the province,
knowing the extent of what the atrocities were."

Watts and his team finish for the day around lunchtime. It's too hot to work
any longer. They pour water over each other to cool off. Tomorrow morning
they will return to continue their grim but valuable work.

Geoff Parish is a journalist with the Australian Broadcast Corporation.


ANTI-TERRORISM LAW POSES "MONSTROUS THREAT"

New anti-terrorist legislation in Serbia would strike at the very heart of
civil liberties and crush the last vestiges of democracy.

By Slobodan Vucetic in Belgrade

Incapable of finding a way out of the deep economic, social and political
crisis and burdened with the problems of international isolation, the regime
of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has resorted to wide-ranging
repression.

Through the suppression of the independent media and an aggressive
"anti-terrorist" campaign, the regime aims to intimidate those citizens who
do not share its views.

The principal "internal enemies, fascists and terrorists" and all those
supposedly undermining the country are in reality unarmed students and
school pupils, members of the Otpor (Resistance) movement.

Their only terrorist activity amounts to plastering posters with the name
Otpor and the clenched fist symbol (a reference to the old communists) on
walls.

Having failed to prove earlier claims that these students and some
opposition parties are engaged in terrorist activities, the regime has come
up with a fiendish idea - the immediate introduction in Serbia of a new law
against terrorism. Under this proposed legislation, the term "terrorism"
would enjoy a very flexible interpretation.

The details of the new law have yet to be revealed. But Serbia's Deputy
Justice Minister, Zoran Balinovac, has suggested that merely the "intention"
to commit a violent crime would be enough to support a terrorism charge. 

The state controlled television and media have being laying the groundwork
for this new legislation, reporting the urgent need for such measures in
light of the experience of other countries with similar patterns of
terrorist activity. 

But it is quite clear these forms of terrorism do not exist in Serbia.

Of course, every state has a right and a duty to combat terrorism, but this
fight must be conducted in line with constitutional guarantees of civil
liberty and civic rights. The limits of executive power must be respected.

The regime's intention is to use this new 'Law against Terrorism' to limit
the basic freedoms of its citizens. Under the constitution, these rights can
only be limited during wartime or during a state of emergency.

Only when specific legal and constitutional conditions are met can the
Federal Parliament or Federal Government declare war or a state of
emergency. 

No such legal or constitutional conditions exist in Serbia. There is no
"large scale internal unrest which threatens the constitutional order of the
country," to cite the Law of Defence, Article 4.

Should Milosevic's regime pass such a law then it would be in breach of the
constitution of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, FRY, especially of those
clauses guaranteeing basic civil freedoms.

A group of pliant officials within the Serbian judiciary have already
announced in the media the possible introduction of rigorous new
restrictions of basic rights and freedoms. These officials have cited
so-called "higher interests" and the "urgent need to protect society from
terrorism" as the reasons behind the new rules.

The proposed increase in police powers of detention, restrictions on a
suspect's rights to a proper defence and the introduction of quick trials
would all be in contravention of the FRY constitution and the Federal Law on
Legal Proceedings, legislation introduced during Tito's time. 

Under the current Law on Legal Proceedings, police powers are already vast -
a suspect can be detained for up to 72 hours without access to a defence
lawyer - and unconstitutional.

Citizens deemed "politically unfit" are already being subjected to so-called
"informative chats" at their local police stations - which also breach
existing laws.

There are suggestions the new law would legalise the use of telephone
tapping devices and bugs and that the police would be allowed to submit such
recordings as evidence in court.

Such proposals are monstrous and represent a dangerous political and legal
precedent. They threaten the freedom of Serbian citizens and the future and
international reputation of the country.

Constitutional rights to privacy would be breached. There would be no
guarantee that such recordings had been made after the introduction of the
legislation or that the material had not been tampered with, edited or taken
out of context.

It has already been announced that the police will be granted the right to
break into private premises without a court order or two witnesses, whenever
they deem there is "reasonable evidence" a terrorist act is being prepared.

At present the Serbian constitution and the federal constitution (Article
31) allow police to do so only "if it is necessary to arrest a person who
has committed a criminal offence or to rescue people or property in a manner
defined by Federal Law."

It should come as no surprise if all forms of public (and private) criticism
of the regime and its officials are redefined as an act of terrorism and if
all public gatherings of more than five people are banned - except those by
members of the ruling parties, of course.

Judging by comments from Serbia's minister of justice and his colleagues in
the Party of the Yugoslav Left, JUL, they are keen to see a statutory
provision for special courts dedicated to combating terrorism. Magistrates
who have already demonstrated their worthiness be passing down draconian
penalties on the independent media could staff these administrative organs.

The latest rumours indicate a Federal anti-terrorist law may also be in the
pipeline, thereby legalising the arrest of "terrorists" in Montenegro.

The frightening scope of this proposed Law against Terrorism is perhaps best
illustrated by the fact that even Vojislav Seselj - a man renowned as an
enemy of democracy and civil rights in Serbia - opposes its introduction.

Slobodan Vucetic was, until his dismissal six months ago, a judge in the
Serbian Constitutional Court. A version of this legal analysis first
appeared in the daily newspaper "Blic".


MACEDONIANS NERVOUS OVER BULGARIAN RAPPROCHEMENT

Some Macedonians are suspicious of their government's attempts to build
bridges with neighbouring Bulgaria.

By Zeljko Bajic in Skopje 

The Macedonian government is facing severe opposition criticism over its
move to improve relations with Bulgaria.

A recent diplomtic thaw has reinforced opposition Social Democrat claims
that the ruling nationalist VMRO-DPMNE party is intent on "handing Macedonia
over to Bulgaria."

A number of confidence-building measures between the two countries
culminated in May with arrival in Skopje of President Petar Stojanov, the
first Bulgarian head of state to visit the country since it secured its
independence from Yugosalavia eight years ago.  

Although Bulgaria was the first country to recognise Macedonian
independence, there's been little attempt by either party in subsequent
years to end their mutual antagonism.

For much of the twentieth century, Bulgaria has disputed the authenticity of
the Macedonian nation and language. Macedonians, meanwhile, have accused
Bulgaria of trying to deny them their identity.

But since the VMRO-DPMNE came to power in Skopje two years ago, attempts
have been made by both countries to improve relations. 

Forbidden for years, Bulgarian papers are now being sold in Macedonia - for
less than Macedonian titles. Bulgarian artists have been invited to
Macedonian cultural events. And the number of Macedonians studying and
holidaying in Bulgaria has increased.

"For the last 50 years the socialist regime in Yugoslavia insisted on the
authenticity of the Macedonian people, language and culture," said a young
Macedonian history professor. "They covered up our linguistic similarities,
spiritual links and that many Macedonian freedom fighters had been educated
in Sofia."

Stojanov's visit to Macedonia was described as "historic" by the press in
Skopje and Sofia. Addressing journalists in the Skopje parliament, he
declared in Macedonian  "Long live free and independent Macedonia." - a
momentous move given that Bulgarian politicians who've visited the country
in the past have always insisted on making speeches in their own language,
without translators.

But the fragility of relations between the two countries was underlined just
a few days later when, during a visit to Albania, Stojanov referred to his
country's Macedonian minority as Bulgarians - provoking a furious reaction
from the Skopje press. 

And there have been other examples of what some Macedonians regard as
Bulgarian duplicity.  For instance, universities in Bulgaria have offered
scholarships to Macedonian students but only on condition that they become
Bulgarian citizens.

For Macedonians suspicious of Sofia, such incidents strengthen their
conviction that Bulgaria continues to have designs on their country.  The
Social Democrats, for instance, have seized on the stuttering rapprochement
to support their claim that VMRO-DPMNE is conspiring to "hand" Macedonia
over to Sofia.

The former communists have been accusing the VMRO-DPMNE of pro-Bulgarian
tendencies ever since the party was formed in the early nineties. In the
1998 parliamentary elections, the Social Democrats charged the nationalists
of sailing towards power with the eastern wind in their sails - that is,
with considerable support from Bulgaria.

The mud slinging has proved effective. Premier and VMRO-DPMNE leader, Ljubco
Georgijevski, has struggled over the years to counter claims that his party
is funded by Sofia or that its activists are trained in summer camps
throughout Bulgaria. The nationalists' problem is that their history betrays
clear Bulgarian sympathies.

Early last century, some VMRO members allied themselves to the ruling
regimes in Sofia and mounted terrorist campaigns against the Kingdom of
Yugoslavia. During the Second World War, the organisation collaborated with
the occupying Bulgarian and Italian authorities. 

Inspite of its history, the VMRO has succeeded in winning over the
electorate. But some analysts have suggested that this had had less to do
with its policies than public disillusionment with Social Democrat
corruption. 

Zeljko Bajic is a regular IWPR contributor 

****************** VISIT IWPR ON-LINE: www.iwpr.net ******************

IWPR's network of leading correspondents in the region provides inside
analysis of the events and issues driving crises in the Balkans. The reports
are available on the Web in English, Serbian and Albanian; English-language
reports are also available via e-mail. For syndication information, contact
Anthony Borden <tony@iwpr.net>.

Balkan Crisis Report is supported by the Department for International
Development, European Commission, and Swedish International Development and
Cooperation Agency and other sources. IWPR also acknowledges general support
from the Ford Foundation.

For further details on this project and other information services and media
programmes, visit IWPR's Website: <www.iwpr.net>.

Editor-in-chief: Anthony Borden. Managing Editor: Yigal Chazan. Associate
Editor: Gordana Igric. Assistant Editors: Christopher Bennett, Alan Davis
and Heather Milner. Kosovo Project Manager: Llazar Semini. Translation:
Alban Mitrushi and others.

The Institute for War & Peace Reporting (IWPR) is a London-based independent
non-profit organisation supporting regional media and democratic change.

Lancaster House, 33 Islington High Street, London N1 9LH, UK Tel: (44 171)
713 7130; Fax: (44 171) 713 7140 E-mail: info@iwpr.net; Web: www.iwpr.net

The opinions expressed in "Balkan Crisis Report" are those of the authors
and do not necessarily represent those of the publication or of IWPR.

Copyright (C) 2000 The Institute for War & Peace Reporting 

*** VISIT IWPR ON-LINE: www.iwpr.net ***

IWPR'S BALKAN CRISIS REPORT, NO. 150

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