Return-Path: Received: from yorktown.infraworks.com ([207.8.81.2]) by mailin07.sul.t-online.com with esmtp id 13TzO3-0yTvwuC; Wed, 30 Aug 2000 06:22:07 +0200 Received: (qmail 15206 invoked by uid 80); 29 Aug 2000 20:39:41 -0500 Mailing-List: contact redalert-help@stratfor.com; run by ezmlm X-No-Archive: yes Delivered-To: mailing list redalert@stratfor.com Delivered-To: moderator for redalert@stratfor.com Received: (qmail 15128 invoked by uid 516); 29 Aug 2000 20:39:23 -0500 Date: Tue, 29 Aug 2000 20:39:23 -0500 (CDT) From: X-Sender: alert@yorktown.infraworks.com To: redalert@stratfor.com Subject: Iran - Violence Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII Stratfor.com's Global Intelligence Update - 30 August 2000 _________________________________________ What in the world is going on? Oil, Power and Politics. Part I. Who's Afraid of the High Price of Oil? http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/0008300143.htm The Philippines: A Hostage and A Power Struggle http://www.stratfor.com/asia/commentary/0008300101.htm _________________________________________ Iran's Militants Latch on to Student Cause Summary The Iranian government has begun to draw links between Iraqi- supported militants and Iran's own student protestors. Formal cooperation between these groups is unlikely - but the threat gives Iran's security forces a golden excuse for a crackdown. Analysis The Iranian leadership faces internal dissent and an external military threat. It has identified possible connections between student protestors and the Iraq-based People's Mujahadeen (MKO). While any formal links are unlikely, the threat of MKO involvement provides justification for increased crackdowns on protesters. Student protestors and the MKO both present challenges to Iranian security - but they are separate issues. Most protestors want the regime to change. The MKO wants to change the regime. The MKO is a 40-year-old resistance group - founded on a mixture of Marxism and Islam - which opposes Iran's current clerical regime and the pro- Western government of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, which preceded it. Many of its current fighters held positions within the Shah's internal security apparatus and now cooperate with the Iraqi government. ________________________________________________________________ Would you like to see full text? http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/giu2000/083000.ASP ___________________________________________________________________ Iran's protestors are a mixture of students, political activists, unemployed and ordinary workers. The students and political activists are organized in a loose coalition. Most of the larger protests involving ordinary citizens are spontaneous and motivated by basic issues such as overzealous security crackdowns or a lack of water and electricity. A series of incidents provide a tenuous link between the MKO and the student protestors. State-run Iranian television reported on Aug. 19 that Iranian security forces found forged student identity cards on two MKO members who were critically injured in a border clash earlier this month. The militants also reportedly carried explosive devices and maps of Tehran, consistent with Iranian claims of MKO infiltration attempts into Iranian cities. The MKO has been extremely active this month. It claimed to destroy three security bases in western Iran on Aug. 12, according to Al- Sharq al-Awsat. The group claimed responsibility for ambushing and killing a Brigadier General as his security convoy drove through northwest Tehran on Aug. 29. And the group battled Iranian military units in three border provinces last weekend, killing hundreds according to an MKO spokesman. The MKO is also trying to link itself to Iran's student demonstrators. The militant group claimed responsibility for an Aug. 28 mortar attack in Tehran and told Agence France-Presse the attack was carried out "in the name of the people of Khoramabad and their heroic uprising in recent days." Khoramabad was engulfed by political clashes between students and conservative militias in the middle of August. _____________________________________________________________ For more on Iran, see: http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/countries/Iran/default.htm _____________________________________________________________ The riots were sparked when volunteer Islamic militia stopped two Iranian reformers from addressing a student meeting. The resulting conflict left one policeman dead and 20 people injured. Demonstrators at the policeman's funeral reportedly beat the provincial governor-general until police intervened. The Khoramabad riots and the MKO attack took place at roughly the same time, both in Iran's western provinces. However, coordination between the two groups is unlikely. The students aren't that organized, and they risk their credibility by allying with Iraq- loving militants. More likely, the MKO may have used the riots as cover to attack pre-arranged targets. And dedicating a mortar attack to the people of Khoramabad is likely an attempt to gain legitimacy and support from everyday Iranians. The MKO members may very well have carried student identity cards, or the entire story could be a fabrication by Iranian security forces. In either case, a link has been established between the protestors and the militants. The risk for the Iranian government - and for the students - is that the MKO will infiltrate the protest movement and attempt to instigate unrest. Police can argue that further demonstrations might be organized by the MKO, or at least used as cover for infiltrations or sabotage. Security forces now have a legitimate reason to prevent protests from taking place - or immediately crack down once they start. _____________________________________________________________ For more on the Middle East & Africa, see: http://www.stratfor.com/meaf/default.htm _____________________________________________________________ (c) 2000 Stratfor, Inc. _______________________________________________ SUBSCRIBE to the free, daily Global Intelligence Update. Click on http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp UNSUBSCRIBE by clicking on http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp _______________________________________________ Stratfor.com 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: info@stratfor.com